Early voting for the midterm elections is underway in Florida. Thirty-five counties began early voting Oct. 19 and the remaining 32 began last Saturday.
Before heading to the polls to cast a ballot, it’s important to be prepared, said Alena Lawson Bennett, a Newberry voter education ambassador for the League of Women Voters.
Bennett said voters can visit vote411.org to learn more about where to vote, their voter registration status and positions that are up for election. Voters can enter their address on the website to see what will be on their ballots.
“They need to be familiar with where those polls are, because they may not be able to go to their regular polling location that’s on their voter registration card,” Bennett said.
Although many counties end early voting on Saturday, Alachua County early voting will end on Sunday. On Election Day, which is on Tuesday, the polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Here are some trends to take note of as early voting continues in North Central Florida:
Republicans are a powerhouse in Florida
In recent years, Republicans have solidified their stronghold in Florida’s top elected seats, particularly shown by Gov. Ron DeSantis 20-percentage-point win in the last midterm cycle in 2022.
On the ballot is not only a unique U.S. Senate race in Florida, filling the seat of now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but also a race to succeed DeSantis, who was term-limited after taking office in 2019.
Florida hasn’t had a Democratic governor since the 1990s, but the last time the state had a Democratic senator was Sen. Bill Nelson, who left office in 2019. In recent years, Florida’s Legislature has continually increased its red supermajority.
Given this history, Republicans are likely to retain their advantage, said Teresa Cornacchione, the associate director of the Bob Graham Center and assistant professor of political science at the University of Florida.
“It’s very likely that that is the trend that holds. But I think it’s going to be a lot closer than people think,” Cornacchione said.
Some Democratic candidates have the potential to lessen this divide. Sharon Austin, a UF political science professor, thinks Democratic candidate Angie Nixon has the potential for success in her campaign for a U.S. Senate seat.
“She’s been doing a lot of grassroots mobilization throughout the state. Especially in predominantly minority communities, and I’m thinking that is going to pay off for her,” Austin said. “I think that so far in looking at her campaign, even in the Democratic primary, she has really surpassed a lot of expectations. So it really wouldn’t be a wise idea to count her out.”
While Austin thinks Nixon will be successful in her campaign, she is not sure if the turnout will be high enough for her to win. Cornacchione took a similar stance for Democratic candidates.
“I don’t think we’re going to see, in Florida at least, this big Democratic sweep,” Cornacchione said. “But I do think the margins will be a lot closer than people think they will be.”
Democrats lead in mail-in voting, but not early voting
Republicans have not yet surpassed Democrats in mail-in voting statewide and in North Central Florida. Democrats have about 135,028 more mail-in ballots turned in and accepted than Republicans in all of Florida, and about 5,000 more in North Central Florida as of Oct. 29, according to the UF Election Lab’s early voting data.
“It’s a trend that we’ve seen in previous elections,” Austin said. “It is a good sign that Democrats are voting for Democratic candidates; they should be encouraged by that. But that’s not something that’s unusual.”
Chair of the Alachua County Republican Party Tim Marden is not worried about the number of votes by Democrats.
“I mean, Republicans have historically voted on the day of voting. Democrats have not. So I don’t think it’s wildly different than it normally is,” Marden said in an interview on Oct. 21. “I know there’s currently still even another 3,000-plus vote-by-mail ballots that were Republicans that have not returned yet. So, you know, that’s quite a few right there.”
In terms of early voting, Republicans are dominating both statewide and in North Central Florida with 16,000 more ballots cast in total by Republicans than by Democrats in North Central Florida, and 213,500 more in all of Florida as of Oct. 29. This number includes in-person early voting and mail-in voting.
Cornacchione said this could be explained by age.
“The demographics of the electorate are changing. Elderly people tend to like voting early,” Cornacchione said. “And in the state of Florida, the elderly, more baby boomer population that are retirees are trending Republican in the state.”
Redistricting could affect congressional races
DeSantis approved redrawn congressional boundaries in May. For the House of Representatives, redistricting could potentially give Republicans an extra four congressional seats, according to a red and blue shaded map first reported by Fox News.
While the new congressional map largely left North Central Florida unchanged, areas near and within South Florida, Tampa and Orlando all experienced changes which could result in greater GOP gains in Congress.
“We’ve seen Democratic seats disappear, so yeah, it will have an impact,” Cornacchione said.
Austin thinks the redistricting will impact Democratic candidates who have had to run in new districts. Some new districts no longer have as many Democratic voters, and candidates have had to adjust.
Trump’s approval ratings could impact voter turnout
According to polling from the New York Times and Siena University, President Trump’s approval ratings are at 36%. This is a new low for Trump, and could impact the midterm elections.
Cornacchione explained how midterm elections are often seen as a referendum on the current president and his party.
“Politics has become more and more nationalized. So people might, if they’re upset about what the Republican Party and who’s holding the levers of power are currently doing, they may punish people on the lower levels for that,” Cornacchione said.
A shift in attitude about the Trump administration is impacting how Republican candidates are acting.
“At first, it looked like a Trump endorsement was something that was really positive,” Austin said. “But now, around the country, many candidates, including especially Republican candidates are distancing themselves from him.”
Byron Donalds, the Republican candidate for Florida governor, has placed less emphasis on his endorsement from Trump.
“We know that Byron Donalds scrubbed everything on his website that said Trump, and so there might be something that is distancing that's going on there,” Cornacchione said.
Austin thinks that Trump's approval ratings and the fact that some Republicans are not in favor of Donalds could impact the gubernatorial election.
“I think some Republicans, rather than vote for a Democratic candidate, will choose just not to vote,” Austin said. “So I think that whichever party is able to get the highest turnout is probably going to have a much greater likelihood of having their candidates win.”