As of September 10, the Atlantic hurricane season has reached its climatological peak with something notably absent: hurricanes. Five named storms have formed so far in 2026, but none has strengthened into a hurricane, and overall storm energy remains far below normal for this point in the season. A strengthening El Niño is one of the major factors working against tropical development by increasing wind shear across the Atlantic.
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. #ENSO https://t.co/5zlzaZ1aZx pic.twitter.com/1HVbvM4mA1
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) September 10, 2026
But for Florida, a quiet peak is not an all-clear. History shows that some of the state’s most damaging hurricanes have struck during and even after the climatological peak. In 2004, as the Pacific transitioned into a weak El Niño, Florida was impacted by four hurricanes. And Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys on September 10, 2017 — the very date considered the statistical peak of the season.
This Thursday is the Peak of Hurricane season (when talking about activity). Quite the feat to reach this mark without a single hurricane reported. Tomorrow will set a record for the 1st hurricane to form this late.
— 7 Weather (@7Weather) September 10, 2026
Today also marks the anniversary of Irma by the Lower Keys. pic.twitter.com/Q7N5la2PFr
Florida Storms meteorologist Leslie Hudson explains why 2026 has been so unusually quiet, what El Niño has to do with it, and why Florida’s complicated hurricane history remains an important reminder that the season is far from over.
And 2026 could soon make hurricane history for another reason. In the modern satellite era, the latest first hurricane of an Atlantic season formed on September 11 — a record shared by 2002 and 2013. So if the Atlantic makes it beyond September 11 (which is all but eminent) without producing a hurricane, 2026 would set a new satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane of the season.
