Lower storm chances across Florida as Saharan dust arrives, scorching temperatures

The forecast across Florida will be mixed this week. Much of South Florida will continue to be under the influence of Saharan dust. Although a layer of moisture will move in from the Atlantic, the Saharan dust and dry air above it will likely cap thunderstorm activity across the region. There could still be a few showers and thunderstorms, but they will mainly develop during the latter part of the afternoon across Southwest Florida.

READ: MONITORING THREE TROPICAL SYSTEMS, NONE A THREAT TO FLORIDA.

Meanwhile, Southeast Florida will remain very hot with mostly sunny skies. Southeast Florida started the week under a Heat Advisory, as heat indices this Monday are expected to reach up to 109°. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 6 p.m. Monday. Another Heat Advisory may be issued for Southeast Florida on Tuesday, potentially extending into parts of Southwest Florida as well.

Southeast Florida will remain under mostly sunny skies, with highs flirting with the mid-90s. Temperatures will remain in the 90s for the rest of the week, although there could be a few more showers and thunderstorms starting Thursday afternoon. Keep in mind that any isolated storms will likely be pushed inland, especially on Friday, as winds will continue to come mainly out of the east. As winds remain primarily out of the east-southeast, the risk of rip currents will continue along Southeast Florida beaches. Evenings will remain warm, with lows likely staying between 79° and 81°.

Across Central Florida, temperatures will also be very hot. We start the week with less than a 20% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm, with similar conditions expected through the middle of the week. The hottest day of the week for areas from Orlando to Tampa will be Wednesday, when temperatures will climb into the upper 90s. Saharan dust will also arrive in the region on Wednesday, which will help suppress thunderstorm activity. With plenty of sunshine, dry air aloft, and dust particles in the atmosphere, the heat could become dangerous. Although highs will be in the mid- to upper 90s, the humidity could make it feel hotter than 105°. Heat Advisories could be placed in effect across Central Florida on Wednesday. Rain chances return to Tampa by the end of the week as winds are expected to become light and variable, allowing the sea breeze to ignite thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours.

For the Panhandle and North Florida, the headline will continue to be the scorching heat. Although there could be a few isolated thunderstorms Monday, especially after 3 p.m., temperatures have soared. Highs have been in the mid-90s as winds continue to come mainly out of the south-southwest. The same trend is expected to continue throughout much of the week, with only a low chance of thunderstorm activity through at least Thursday. Similar to Central Florida, the hottest days of the week will be Tuesday and Wednesday, as temperatures are expected to reach the mid- to upper 90s. However, heat indices could climb as high as 110° across Gainesville and come very close to that in the Jacksonville area.

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Tallahassee will also experience a very hot Tuesday, with temperatures above 95° and heat index values as high as 160°. Rain chances return Friday as we continue to monitor a trough, along with a front that could move closer to the Florida Panhandle by the end of the week.