The weather pattern that brought continuous rain across the panhandle late last week through the weekend improved drought conditions across the I-10 corridor. Last week’s US drought report showed the middle of the panhandle under an exceptional drought. This is the highest drought on the scale. Extreme drought also affected most of the panhandle, from west of Jacksonville through east of Panama City Beach.
The month of November was a very dry month for much of the panhandle. For example, in Tallahassee, the average rainfall is about 3.10 inches. In November 2025, only 0.1 inches of rain were recorded. This was the month when the area entered an exceptional drought. As of the 10th, December has recorded 3.01 inches of rain. On average, December is one of the driest months, with 4.24 inches of rain.
Taking a broad look at the drought monitor for the week
When we look at the different categories across the Sunshine State, we not only have no areas under an exceptional drought, but the next level down, which is extreme drought, has also decreased drastically. Florida showed about 21% of the state under extreme drought, according to the last report issued on December 4. The latest report released on December 11 shows a huge improvement, with about 6% of Florida now under an extreme drought. This is mainly over the same area that was previously under an exceptional drought, and the area has shrunk. The severe drought also reduced coverage, dropping from 38% to about 27%. This is a clear example: a drought can improve with consistent moderate rainfall over time, not with downpours or deluges, which tend to cause more problems, such as flash flooding, because dry soil doesn't drain properly. For context, Tallahassee recorded rain on 7 of the first 10 days of December 2025.
Where we saw conditions worsening as the drought has expanded and inched closer toward Metro areas is over South Florida. The entire portion of Alligator Alley, moving from Naples through the Everglades up to I-75, is now under a moderate drought. Much of Palm Beach through Miami-Dade County is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. There is also a section across southwest Florida that has worsened by one category on the drought scale. Manatee and Sarasota Counties are under severe drought, while parts of Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas have improved from severe drought to moderate drought.
What is in the short-term future?
There’s a cold front that will be pushing through the southeast late this weekend into early next week. This will be a very fast-moving cold front; therefore, precipitation is not expected to be continuous and will be similar to what we experienced last week. An extensive, high-pressure system will take over just after, bringing extremely dry air and likely strong winds. Keep in mind that these two ingredients are a bad combination for fires. But we will welcome cooler temperatures. As for rainfall, we’re not expecting significant amounts, at least with the cold front expected to push through early next week.
What’s in the long-term future?
Keep in mind that we are under a La Niña winter. This indicates the overall pattern is likely to remain warmer and drier than usual. This time is critical as it is when the most vegetation dies, which could serve as fuel for future fires. Remember, Florida’s fire season is year-round, but peaks in spring and early summer. Therefore, a worsening drought, especially during a drier-than-normal winter, is highly concerning for the spring months ahead.