All north-central Florida counties face extreme drought conditions, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor map analysis. Some experts say drier-than-average conditions could continue for months.
North-central Florida still faces a rainfall deficit despite parts of the area receiving over an inch of rain Feb. 15. Even that rain, though, isn’t enough to alleviate the dry spell.
Why are we in a drought?
Drought is defined by unusually low precipitation over an extended period. According to NOAA, the organization measures rainfall totals over a “water year,” which begins Oct. 1 and ends Sept. 30 the following year. According to FPREN Meteorologist Megan Borowski, as of Feb. 15, rainfall for the 2026 water year in north-central Florida is below average.
“We had cold fronts move through, but we didn’t get the significant rainfall we should have,” she said.
During the winter, Florida tends to get rain when showers and storms form ahead of cold fronts and move into the state. This year, though, precipitation hasn’t been as common ahead of those fronts.
According to meteorological data, Gainesville received just 25% of its usual rainfall between January and Feb. 14. The data also showed Ocala received only 18% of its usual rainfall in the same period.
Behind a cold front, cold, dry air tends to settle, which can exacerbate drought conditions. Borowski said she is concerned about the growing risk for wildfires to spread because the dry season continues for the next couple months.
“All that dry vegetation is just waiting to be consumed,” she said.
How are drought and wildfire risk related?
Dry vegetation serves as fuel for fires because it’s more flammable. A small fire can quickly transform into a larger one when there are drought conditions and gusty winds.
Alachua Conservation Trust Fire Management Specialist Nathan Bullian helps oversee prescribed burns, which help clear dead trees and brush that can fuel wildfires. While prescribed burns are planned, wildfires are not.
“There’s a direct correlation between drought and wildfire incidents that are occurring right now,” Bullian said.
The Florida Forest Service recorded more than 600 wildfires across the state that burned about 16,000 acres from January to Feb. 8. On Feb. 9, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency recognizing the threat of the drought fueling wildfires.
“If you don’t have a reasonable prospect of catching a fire within 15 minutes, you’re contacting forestry to help you contain it with conditions like this,” Bullian said.
As of Feb. 15, more than 30 counties in the state are under burn bans. An active burn ban prohibits setting campfires and bonfires, along with burning yard waste.
The Putnam County Sheriff’s Office said people should avoid throwing cigarette butts into dry brush and parking cars with catalytic converters in dry, grassy areas.
How is the drought affecting agriculture?
Many Florida farmers rely on irrigation to provide their crops with a continuous source of moisture. Much of that irrigation comes from the Floridan Aquifer.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the aquifer is one of the most productive in the world and takes up an area of about 100,000 square miles over five states. The aquifer is also a major source of drinking water for Floridians.
Rainbow Star Farm co-owner Paul Miller works with vegetable crops in Newberry. He is one of many farmers who depend on the aquifer to support their crops.
“I don’t ever perceive the aquifer going dry,” he said. “That would be catastrophic.”
The aquifer is far from emptying right now. But long-term drought could put stress on it, according to UF/IFAS Extension Agent Bob Hochmuth.
“We’re going into the dry part of the year, and we’re already behind [on rainfall],” he said. “The [aquifer] isn’t unlimited.”
Hochmuth’s research focuses on vegetable crops. He said farmers need to bring in more water for irrigation when there’s less rainfall.
“Every time you turn that pump on, it does cost more money to run the irrigation system,” Hochmuth said. “Farmers aren’t able to typically pass the additional cost to consumers.”
Meanwhile, Miller said he isn’t being affected by the drought right now. But he also said a longer drought could create challenges for everyone.
“If you’re a city dweller, rain is annoying,” he said. “But the consequences are there [if it doesn’t rain].”
What water shortage issues are impacting north-central Florida right now?
Two water management districts have declared Phase I Moderate Water Shortages for parts of north-central Florida. These advisories ask people to voluntarily reduce water use.
The Suwannee River Water Management District declared a shortage for 14 of its 15 counties in January after below-average rainfall in 2025.
In February, the St. Johns River Water Management District declared a water shortage for parts of Alachua, Marion and Bradford counties.
Suwannee River Water Management District Chief of Communications Troy Roberts said the most recent drought the district can compare this one to was almost 20 years ago.
“We’re starting to see some of those groundwater levels get to a point where… we start making additional efforts to encourage people to conserve water,” he said.
Alachua County Parks and Open Space announced the temporary closure of the Watermelon Pond boat ramp in Newberry. It’s not the only body of water affected by drought in the area. The Owen-Illinois Park and Lake Alto boat ramps, both in Alachua County, have also been temporarily closed.
“We’ve been talking to fishermen, and they haven’t seen lake levels this low in a long time,” said Alachua County Parks and Open Space Director Jason Maurer.
Roberts and Maurer said conserving water is now especially important. Some ways to do that include postponing water-intensive activities like washing your car and turning your faucet off while you brush your teeth.
What water restrictions could people see if the drought continues or worsens?
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, there’s a 40% to 50% chance of below average rainfall through March. If drought conditions continue, water management districts could issue Phase II Severe Water Shortage advisories that include regulatory restrictions.
“There may be certain high pressure irrigation systems that we ask [farmers] not to use,” Roberts said.
Other forms of water restriction include enforcing watering hours or limiting how many times people can water their landscapes each week.
Watering hours are specific times when people are allowed to water their landscapes. They’re usually scheduled for cooler parts of the day, when water evaporates slower and more effectively penetrates the soil.
For now, though, the water shortage advisories from Suwannee River Water Management District and St. Johns River Water Management District only ask people to voluntarily conserve water.
“We just need a good, rainy spring,” Roberts said. “Every drop counts.”