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Tropical Depression Two forms, set to stregthen

The National Hurricane Center has started advisories on Tropical Depression Two.

The depression is currently located over 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is a very healthy-looking system that could establish a record if it were to strengthen to hurricane status before it reaches the southern islands of the Lesser Antilles. The last hurricane that formed in June this far east of the Caribbean was in 1933. It is likely to be officially named early this weekend.

This storm will continue to travel mainly west throughout the weekend and by Monday afternoon, it will be entering the Caribbean. While it travels westward the system will continue to have favorable conditions to strengthen. By Monday, it could reach hurricane status. Once in the Caribbean, this system will be in prime hot waters and low wind shear. The official NHC track shows this system as a hurricane once inside the Caribbean, but keep in mind that intensity models could have great fluctuations. This system can become stronger sooner. the eastern Caribbean Islands should be preparing for a storm one category stronger than what the forecast calls for.

The track.

Meteorological models are showing consistency in this system staying over the south and central Caribbean at least through Tuesday afternoon, its center traveling well south of the Hispaniola. After Wednesday, some models are showing the system to start to make a northward turn. But this is when the models also start to diverge a little.

It is too far out to know if, where, and when this system could be making landfall after Wednesday. At this point, the continental U.S. should continue to monitor this system closely. It’s starting at the beginning of next week when we should have a better idea if the system will be turning and by when. When we have this answer, it will become clear which areas could be at risk. Stay tuned our team of meteorologists will continue to bring updates throughout the weekend and the rest of the season.