The tropics will need to be monitored even closer than normal for late July. Tropical Storm Don is still swirling around the north-central Atlantic and poses no threat to the U.S. But we now have an area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic that has a good chance to develop into Tropical Depression Emily the next few days.
In the past 24 hours, this system has been designated INVEST-95L. The NHC makes these designations so they can start running computer models on areas of disturbed weather. For now, 95L is forecasted to take a slow westward track that will put it near the Leeward Islands early next week.
This track will also keep the system just south of a very large area of Saharan dust that stretches across most of the tropical Atlantic. If 95L can stay far enough south of that dust layer, it will have a moderate chance to develop into a depression as some models are indicating. As this low pressure area approaches the Caribbean, there will be less dust, but possibly more wind shear. Depending on the strength of the shear, the storm could struggle.
In other words, there is still much uncertainty ahead and it’s too soon to talk threats for the U.S. mainland. Tropical weather models are also forecasting at least one more wave to come off the west African coast early to mid-next week.