Regional Transit System buses carried more than 637,000 fewer passenger trips in Gainesville over an 11-month period compared with the previous year. But as ridership declined, the time it took buses to provide service fell by nearly the same percentage, leaving the system's average number of passengers per hour virtually unchanged.
RTS recorded approximately 3.81 million passenger trips between October 2025 and August 2026, a 14.3% decrease from the 4.45 million trips recorded during the same months a year earlier,according to the system's August 2026 ridership report. Revenue hours, which measure the time buses spend providing passenger service, also decreased by 14.5%.
Despite the reductions, RTS averaged 22.7 passengers per revenue hour during both periods.
The numbers point to a transportation system adjusting to reduced service, changing travel patterns and a shifting relationship with the University of Florida, one of its largest sources of passengers and funding. They also raise questions about what declining ridership actually says about transit demand and whether the remaining service is reaching the people who need it.
Thomas Idoyaga, who oversees marketing communications and sales for RTS, said the agency's average passenger productivity indicates that the buses continue to carry a comparable number of passengers relative to the amount of service provided.
"The decline tracks the service almost exactly," said Idoyaga. "So, the riders didn't go away from RTS. We just ran fewer buses and fewer trips."
The distinction between total ridership and passenger productivity is important when evaluating a transit system, said Lily Elefteriadou, professor of civil engineering and director of the UF Transportation Institute.
When fewer people use a system overall but the number of passengers per hour remains stable, transportation agencies must consider whether service is being adjusted to reflect where and when people travel.
Elefteriadou said RTS and UF have worked together to adjust routes as student housing and travel patterns change. Operating buses with very few passengers can become expensive, making it important for transit agencies to align service with demand.
But the university's influence on Gainesville transportation extends beyond the number of students boarding buses.
The August 2026 farebox report shows that UF students and employees accounted for approximately 243,000 or 67.9% of the 358,106 passenger trips recorded that month.
The relationship has also changed as UF has shifted its approach to campus transportation. In July 2025, the university made its Campus Connector system the primary provider of on-campus transit, while RTS focused on routes connecting the university to Gainesville.
In June 2025, service adjustments were made following an agreement with UF that reduced RTS' annual operating budget from approximately $13.7 million to $9.8 million for fiscal year 2026, according to the City of Gainesville. The changes included replacing several campus routes with the university's Campus Connector service and combining or modifying other routes.
Jeremiah McInnis, UF's associate director of transportation, wrote in an email that the Campus Connector provided approximately 352,000 rides during its first year as the university's primary on-campus transit provider. Ridership increased throughout the academic year as students became more familiar with the service, he said. The system is currently experiencing a 25% ridership increase in fiscal year 2027 and is on track to provide more than 440,000 rides.
McInnis said the Campus Connector and RTS are intended to complement one another in the context of UF’s campus and the larger city.
Elefteriadou described the university's influence as a "blessing and a curse." UF provides a concentrated population of potential transit passengers, helping support the system, but its class schedules also create periods of unusually high demand that RTS must accommodate.
At the same time, the growth of student housing near campus is changing how often students use public transportation.
"There are a lot more apartments closer to campus," Elefteriadou said. "So a lot of people are now walking. They don't have to take the bus."
McInnis said new student housing developments along University Avenue and Southwest 13th Street have contributed to shifting student housing and commuting patterns since 2017. These developments could reduce the need for students to take buses to campus, while leaving them dependent on transit for shopping, weekend trips and other destinations.
Jessica Kluttz, a senior transportation planner with Alachua County, said residential and commercial growth is increasingly occurring west of Interstate 75 and in smaller municipalities, including Newberry and Alachua, areas that often have fewer transit options and transportation connections to existing bus service.
For Anoch Whitfield, executive director of the Gainesville and Alachua County Transportation Planning Organization, the larger question is how to provide transportation beyond Gainesville's urban center.
Whitfield said the region continues to have demand for both traditional fixed-route buses and on-demand transportation, but expanding service remains challenging because of operating costs and limited funding.
"At the end of the day, the reality is transit operation is expensive," Whitfield said.
Whitfield said changes to routes serving households with limited access to vehicles can have a greater impact than changes to routes primarily used by people with other transportation options. For some families, public transportation is not simply a convenient alternative but a necessity for getting to work and school and running everyday errands.
This makes evaluating transit systems more complicated than looking at total passenger counts alone.
McInnis noted that student use of electric scooters has increased significantly over the past three to four years, although UF does not maintain specific figures on students' transportation choices. Many students also have the option to walk to campus.
Idoyaga said RTS also examines service frequency, operating hours, arrival reliability and passenger counts at individual stops. The agency uses automatic passenger counters to track boarding and exiting activity, helping planners identify which stops attract the most passengers and where adjustments may be necessary.
Elefteriadou similarly pointed to other performance measures, including the cost of providing each passenger trip, travel time and the number of passengers carried on individual buses.
As RTS adjusts the level of service it provides and the county continues to grow, the question is not only how many people are riding the bus, but whether the system can continue connecting the people to the places they need to go.