Tropical disturbance in Gulf will keep organizing and impacting Florida into this weekend


The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicks off Thursday with a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that will continue to impact Florida this weekend. The area of low pressure is becoming better organized and now has a 50% chance of tropical formation. The latest data indicate there may be just enough time and ingredients for the system to briefly turn into a depression by Friday before conditions become unfavorable for further development. For now, the latest models are keeping the disturbance offshore in the open waters until it dissipates this weekend.

Parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula has been hit with rounds of flooding rains the past several days, and that system will continue to push waves of heavy showers over the same areas through Saturday. In addition to a flooding threat, Florida’s Gulf Coast along the Peninsula will likely experience gusty winds, rough surf, and an increased risk for high rip currents.

If necessary, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later Thursday. It would be named Arlene if development and organization continue.

With hurricane season officially underway, please continue preparing and always be ready to take action when necessary. Here are some safety and prep resources:

The Florida Storms app is a one-stop shop for all of your hurricane preparation and safety needs along with helping you track everything going on in the tropics.

About Jeff George - FPREN

Jeff is the chief meteorologist for the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network and can be reached at or 352-294-1506.

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