Tropical Storm Jerry forms: it will turn north

The National Hurricane Center has officially labeled Invest 95L as Tropical Storm Jerry. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday, which will place us one week ahead of schedule for the fifth hurricane of the season.

At 11 a.m. Tuesday, Jerry held maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and raced west at 24 mph. Jerry will continue to travel mainly West during the next 24 to 36 hours. By Wednesday night, it should begin to make a west-northwest turn as it intensifies into a hurricane and gains more strength. By Friday, Jerry will be slowing down as it starts to make the northward turn.

Jerry is expected to remain over 350 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. However, marine conditions will be hazardous along the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles, with expected large swells, rough surf, high seas, and a risk of rip currents. By the weekend, Jerry should be moving mainly north, staying well away from the eastern seaboard.

Remember, we have started to notice stronger fronts sweeping through the continental US. The constant movement of frontal boundaries is helping to push the systems out and keep them there. Additionally, the high-pressure system, known as the Bermuda High, has shifted more eastward, allowing the systems to make a northward turn and stay a safe distance away from the continental US.

Low chance for Gulf disturbance to develop

Across the southern Gulf, the disturbance, which has a low chance of developing into a tropical system, is expected to cross the southern portion of the Mexican state of Veracruz. It doesn’t have much time to develop; therefore, we don't expect the system to develop fully. However, heavy rounds of rain and gusty winds are likely to impact parts of the Yucatán Peninsula and southern Mexico during the next few days. There could also be landslides and flash floods.