The wide, low-pressure system spinning over the southeast continues to move very slowly to the east, dragging a cold front that has produced severe weather across the Panhandle through North Florida on Saturday. This low-pressure system will continue to pull lots of deep tropical moisture over Florida. The constant stream of moisture through Monday will bring flash floods across the Panhandle, North Florida, and the northern edge of Central Florida. Rainfall amounts could exceed 7 inches in some areas through Monday afternoon.
Plenty of warmth is taking over much of the Sunshine State. This warmth feeds the atmosphere with instability and, combined with the deep moisture, creates the conditions for severe weather to develop. The main areas that could see severe weather on Sunday will once again be focused across the state's northern half. Severe storms that develop may produce damage in wind gusts of at least 60 mph, hail, and a tornado or two.
The risk for severe weather will continue on Monday afternoon across much of the peninsula as the cold front pushes through the state. The storms will mainly move from west to east again, bringing the chance for some severe storms that could develop damaging winds, hail, and one or two tornadoes. The main worry with the system is the constant rain. Although these rains are highly welcomed, the ground is highly compacted due to the drought affecting much of Florida. Most of the state is under at least severe drought. As heavy precipitation falls, it takes longer to drain, making floods more likely. A slight risk for flash floods is still present on Monday over much of Central Florida through the southeast.
Remember, if you encounter flooded roads, turn around, don’t drown. The water could be deeper than expected. Only 6 inches of water could cause you to lose control of your vehicle, and a foot of standing water could make your vehicle float. We will monitor the situation closely and update you on Sunday evening.