While Jamaica braces for hurricane Melissa, the strongest storm of 2025, Alachua County residents have had an unusually quiet October, void of hurricane preparation and tracking.
UF Chief Meteorologist Tim Miller, who also serves as director of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, pointed out that the number of storms the area has seen this hurricane season is on par with what the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted for the year, but a “majority of these storms stay out to sea, which is unusual for us.”
According to Miller, there are multiple atmospheric factors that play into these patterns. He says dust traveling west from the Sahara Desert accumulates in the atmosphere. The dust is carried in an air mass that is drier than the typical tropical atmosphere. The dust layer can also slightly alter sea surface heating patterns by reflecting sunlight back into space, limiting storm formation and weakening tropical convection.
Saharan dust is usually accompanied by high wind shear. “We have a lot of wind shear [this year],” Miller said. He described wind shear as “wind in the upper atmosphere moving at high speeds, which prevents storms from developing.” He added that low wind shear allows storms to grow higher and stronger in the atmosphere. This leads to years with multiple high-impact storms, such as the 2024 season, which became one of the most costly hurricane seasons to date.
The combination of dry air, dust and wind shear creates a hostile environment for tropical systems. Even though sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic remain warm enough to sustain hurricanes, the upper-level conditions have been working against them.
According to Meteorologist Paige Klingler from the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, scientists use many different methods of tracking storms that could affect the local area. Satellite observation and nearby buoys assist with tracking, as well as hurricane hunters that fly into these storms to collect data.
“The [National Hurricane Center] has become much more reliable for their tracking over the past few decades,” Klingler said, explaining that modern forecasting now combines satellite, aircraft, and oceanic data to predict storm paths with increased accuracy.
Miller acknowledged the lack of tropical rainfall this year has affected local groundwater levels and drought conditions in the area. “We’re pretty much done with rainy season,” he said, “Mid-October through November is dry season.” He added that not receiving enough rain can tax the aquifer, which is something residents and businesses should pay attention to.
North central Florida depends heavily on the Floridian Aquifer as its primary source of drinking water. When fewer tropical systems bring rain, the aquifer has less opportunity to recharge.
“There may be water restrictions issued later on this fall. I think we’ll see water restrictions more often moving forward,” Miller said.
He warned that residents should take measures to conserve water, like turning off the sink while brushing teeth or checking for leaks in home irrigation systems.
“Research at UF has shown that 60% of water usage or more can come from irrigation that we have in our yards,” said Cynthia Nazario-Leary, an environmental horticulture extension agent at UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.
Despite the calm hurricane season for Florida so far, residents should remain cautious. “You really need to have your hurricane supplies ready regardless,” Miller said. Canned food, water, LED lights and batteries are all essential items when it comes to preparing for hurricanes.
The National Weather Service is currently tracking Hurricane Melissa, bound for Jamaica, with models showing the storm moving southeast of Florida, back into the Atlantic Ocean. It is “not expected to impact us locally,” said Klingler.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30, though late-season storms are not uncommon. In Oct. 2018 Hurricane Michael hit the Florida panhandle, causing over $25 billion in economic damage.