The beginning of the summer has been drier than average; the heat, although intense, has not been record-breaking as much as in July 2024. So far this year, southeast Florida has only been under a heat advisory five times. Compared to 2024, by this time, we had been under 22 heat advisories. Remember, the threshold for heat advisories to be put in effect for South Florida is heat index temperatures of at least 105°F for at least two hours in the day. But what is the difference in the pattern between July 2024 and 2025?
It is all about the wind direction.
In 2024, we had a weaker Bermuda high in place, which brought a south-southwestly flow during June. A south-westerly flow has to travel longer over land, allowing the air to warm up plenty. Therefore, the heat was more intense, bringing in higher heat indices across the region.
The wind flow also influences where the rain and thunderstorm activity occurs. When there is a southwestern flow, rain chances are mainly focused across Miami-Dade and Broward, often even more over highly populated areas. It happens because when the sea breeze activates, the south-southwesterly flow holds the shower and thunderstorm activity closer over populated areas of Miami-Dade and Broward.
2025 has been different. In June, the Bermuda high has been stronger, with its center closer to the US. This allows the easterly flow to be in place across South Florida. The east flow allows the temperatures to remain "cooler" as they come straight from the ocean.
Now our friends across Southwest Florida experience warmer temperatures and also higher storm and rain activity with an east flow. The sea breeze is still becoming active, but with an extra push toward Southwest Florida, showers and storms stay mainly focused over mainland Monroe, Collier, Lee, Hendry, Charlotte, and surrounding counties.
When looking at the drought monitor between the two dates, it’s clear that the winds have not been in our favor to produce showers and thunderstorms during July 2025. We continue to deal with at least a severe drought as we start in August, and even a patch of extreme drought affecting parts of inland Miami-Dade County.
Special thanks to our friends at the Miami National Weather Service office for providing great, detailed information and always doing a superb job.