Another seasonal hurricane forecast has been released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, parent agency of the National Hurricane Center. Their experts say an inactive season is likely.
Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, Colorado State University professors, were the first to release a seasonal forecast in late April. They anticipate this will be one of the least active seasons on record.
"In terms of the seasonal forecast skill, we can generally give you a good idea on how much activity we are going to see," Klotzbach said. "However, we really can't say where the storms are going to go."
The State’s Director of Emergency Management Bryan Koon shared his thoughts on seasonal forecasts last week at the state’s hurricane exercise.
"You know the seasonal forecasts are interesting. I, like everyone else, enjoy reading them, and it's interesting to see how [they] think that the current atmospheric conditions are going to impact what could happen. But frankly, no one cares what the total number of storms is. People care what storms are going to impact them," Koon said.
Other private entities like AccuWeather and commercial TV weather giant The Weather Channel announced their forecast for a below-normal season earlier this month, just days after the first named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Ana, prematurely formed.
Their numbers are slightly higher than Colorado State’s, but all forecasters generally agree that the current El Niño pattern will suppress tropical cyclone development over a large portion of the Atlantic this year.