The season may be half over, but the chances for a tropical storm or hurricane to hit Florida are not on the decline...yet. In what appears to be a relatively quiet hurricane season so far, history says Floridians should not let their guard down. Just because the typical hotbed of activity hasn't spawned any potential threats for the state doesn't mean they can't still come from somewhere else.
RELATED: The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network Storm Center
Most Atlantic Basin hurricanes form far to the east of Florida, often thousands of miles away out over the Atlantic Ocean. It's the west side of the state, however, that has had more come ashore since 1900. In fact, 49 hurricanes have hit somewhere between Pensacola and Key West, whereas the coastline from Miami to Jacksonville has endured only 38 landfalls. It's the unique shape of the peninsula in relation to its latitude that makes it just as easy for a storm to approach from the west (or southwest) as it is from the east. For example, if a hurricane moves into the Gulf of Mexico and veers east, it has no choice but to hit Florida, unlike its counterparts on the other side of the state that get the option to curve out to sea.
<i>Overall trends of the first half of the hurricane season, and the factors that have led to a relatively quiet season so far.</i>
<i>The latest ENSO signal from NOAA, which is a measure of eastern Pacific water temperatures, indicates that a neutral phase continues.</i>
<i>Tracks of hurricanes that have hit Florida during the months of August and September (data courtesy of NOAA).</i>
<i>Tracks of hurricanes that have hit Florida during the months of October and November (data courtesy of NOAA).</i>
<i>According to Meteorologist Jeff Huffman, areas to watch for future storm formation during the second half of the season.</i>
Four of the first five named storms of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season have had this option, and only one - Hurricane Arthur - has come close to Florida's Atlantic coast. Like many forecasters had predicted, it has been a relatively quiet year (compared to average) with regards to total tropical cyclone activity. But despite the calendar saying we are past the historical peak, it's important to note that the probabilities of a tropical storm or hurricane impacting Florida are roughly the same in September and October. The panhandle and east Florida are more prone to a strike in September, while central and south Florida have the higher chances in October.
The Main Development Region (or MDR) has been largely void of activity this year, and this comes as no surprise thanks to accurate model projections for unfavorable conditions over the central Atlantic. Cooler than normal water temperatures, limited atmospheric moisture and strong wind shear have all taken their toll on the seasonal parade of tropical waves. The few systems that have survived the journey were not able to mature until they moved past this hurdle, or in Hurricane Edouard's case developed soon enough to overcome the negative influences. Long range forecast data suggests there will be little or no decrease in the overall hostile conditions across the MDR, so the chances for a storm to threaten Florida from the east are very low. In addition to the MDR anomalies, an El Nino (a warming of the eastern Pacific waters that usually suppresses Atlantic activity) is still potentially a player during the second half of the season. Confidence in that developing before winter, however, has decreased some in recent weeks.
The potential trouble spots for Florida during the remainder of the 2014 season are in the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and near the Bahamas. Even though chances for storm formation are also lower than normal in these areas, the probabilities that one could hit Florida's coastline are higher than an Atlantic-born (MDR) storm. Water temperatures are very warm in all three areas, and as waves of energy and moisture cross over from Mexico or accompany a stalling cold front in the Southeast U.S., thunderstorm complexes could develop quickly and birth a tropical cyclone. It's happened numerous times before, and despite the hostility elsewhere in the tropics, it could still happen this year. Steering currents with systems that form later in the year over the western Caribbean or Gulf usually yield two options: 1) west toward Mexico and south Texas, or 2) northeast toward Florida and the east coast of the United States.
Considering the eight-year hurricane drought in Florida, compounded with the knowledge of what history says can still happen this time of year, it would not make sense for Floridians to let their guard down. To that end, it's seemingly never too late to prepare. In a season such as this, the risk to Florida could be perceived as greater since a Caribbean or Gulf storm - if it forms - could strengthen quickly before landfall and leave less time to prepare than an Atlantic storm might lend. Just one storm can change anyone's perception of a season or a forecast. Hurricane season doesn't officially end until November 30.